PBL Playoff Predictions

Dispatchers weigh in on the Pioneer League Semifinals

The 2026 PBL playoffs begin tonight with Modesto visiting first half champ Long Beach and Missoula visiting first half runner-up Billings. Our writers give their predictions based on fact, feeling, and Batman villains for the first round. We’ll return for thoughts on the championship series.

The league has made no mystery of a larger plan to develop a California division to separate from a mountain division, and these playoffs happen to illustrate what that would look like with de-facto divisional championships.

PBL changes this year: the championship series is only three games instead of five, and all the games will be played at the better seed’s park. This is, in our view, very bad.

Games begin at 6:35pm Mountain/5:35 Pacific on the Home Team Network to see who will take the Ballers’ 2025 crown and stare into my son’s eyes and take the trophy out of his small, sad hands.

Nick Clementi

Billings hosts Missoula in what is a battle of best overall record (Mustangs at 67-28) versus the hottest team in the PBL (PaddleHeads at 35-13 in the 2nd half). The Mustangs boast the second-best team OPS, with the PaddleHeads having the fourth-best OPS, setting up for a slugfest at Dehler Park. Missoula will be relying on RHP Brendan Beard to contain Mustangs bats. Beard had three terrific outings last month in which he allowed five total runs across two starts in Long Beach and one in Modesto. Billings will be counting on Pioneer League MVP candidate A.J Shaver (.434 AVG with 21 HRs and 35 steals) to carry a Billings offense that has been so consistent all season. Interestingly, Billings has not played in California this season, and depending on the other side’s outcome, might not play there at all in 2026.

I’ll take Missoula to win a do-or-die game three on the road to advance. This is an organization that has done nothing but win since the PBL became independent and is led by long-time manager Michael Schlact. Look for second-year PaddleHead Nich Klemp to provide clutch-hitting for Missoula. 

In the other playoff series, the Long Beach Coast plays host to the Modesto Roadsters in an all-inaugural California rivalry matchup. Long Beach had the best record in the first half and followed that up with a solid fourth place finish in the second half. They led the PBL in team ERA throughout the entire season, though recent injuries to RHP Cole Percival and LHP Brett Wozniak put a dent in their starting pitching depth for the postseason. Offensively, OF Emilio Corona has ten home runs in his past 19 games. The key for Modesto will be if strikeout-leader Omar Serrano and RHP Ethan Roarke can keep Corona and Eddy Pelc off the base paths, or at the very least in the ballpark. After a solid 27-21 first half, the Roadsters claimed a postseason spot with a 31-17 record in the second half. OF Tyler Williams has gotten hot at the right time, with 14 hits in his last 35 at-bats. Modesto finished their regular season losing four of six in Long Beach, though two games were decided via knockout round. 

On paper it’s nearly identical offensively, and pitching-wise it’s been close in the second half. I’ll take Modesto in an upset series win in three games. Whether or not Modesto manager J.T Snow can contain himself to stick around for all three games is yet to be seen. 

I want to take this time to let the Pioneer League know that it’s incredibly disappointing to see that the league has changed the championship series from a best of five to a best of three. Not only is it a shame that fans may not see their team play in their home ballpark, but it’s also a disservice to the great seasons these teams have worked so hard for. Three games is not enough of a sample size in baseball to properly crown a champion, and I hope the league takes a serious look at reversing their decision for the 2027 postseason.

Chris Drue

Overall, I would bet on LBC or Modesto. They both have superior pitching staffs, both of which rank at the very top in ALL of indie ball, per Corner Stripe. Pitching wins championships, especially in these shorter series. We saw how important our starts and bullpen were when it got down to the wire last year. 

I give a slight edge to Long Beach, because Modesto has struggled recently. Both are dealing with injuries—including to Cole Percival—but LBC has weathered them better over the past month, showing better overall resilience, for whatever that is worth. 

Roberto Santiago

Billings won the season series over Missoula, but Missoula won the last three head-to-head. Also, Billings is 6-4 in their last 10 while Missoula is 9-1. Billings has been a better hitting and pitching team over the season, but I'm going with Missoula and the hot hand.

Long Beach went 16-4 against Modesto in the regular season including 4-2 to close the year against the Roadsters. LB has had the best pitching in the league all year, with Modesto at second. Both teams are in the bottom half of the PBL in hitting, but again, LB is just a little bit ahead of Modesto in most categories. I'm giving the edge to LB.

Finally:

Do you want a JT Snow, man?

He could get thrown out of them all.

It seems an tantrum's overdue.

What is he gonna do?

The writing's on the wall.

He used to be our bench coach

Now he's not

I think he's gonna cry

Do you want a JT Snow, man?

You may not have JT Snow, man

(Go away JT)

Nana na na goodbye

Dan Silvert

My predictions are Long Beach in 2, Missoula in 3. 

JT Snow for Sad Angry Man of the year.

Dawn Pieper

Missoula will knock out Billings, Long Beach will take out Modesto. Modesto barely made it into the playoffs so I just don’t think they’re gonna do that well. Plus their manager is an asswipe.

Michael Thompson

Billings Mustangs (67-28) vs. Missoula PaddleHeads (59-36)

The Montana rivals will face off in the hitters' haven of Dehler Park. Hitting will define the series; in other words, Billings' AJ Shaver (.434/.491/.772) will be the x-factor. Neither team has much pitching to speak of, but the Mustangs' Julian Garcia (9-1, 5.60 ERA) is probably the best starter that will toe the rubber in this series. The three leading members of Missoula's rotation all have ERA's in the 7s, narrowly below the Pioneer League's average of 8.44.

Billings as a team has both outhit (1.041 vs. .987 OPS) and outpitched (6.93 vs. 8.62 ERA) Missoula, making this series look like somewhat of a mismatch.

Final Prediction: 2-0 Billings

Long Beach Coast (67-29) vs. Modesto Roadsters (58-38)

The league's two newest clubs just wrapped up a six-game series in Long Beach. The Coast won four, but all six games except for an 11-0 blowout on Friday were decided by two runs or less. Modesto, after a hot start, has slowed down as of late; they're just 3-14 in their last 17 games played. Long Beach, meanwhile, is trending the opposite way over the same period; they're 11-6. Modesto built their red-hot streak early in the second half off elite starting pitching, but Long Beach has an ace of their own to counter with.

The Coast’s home stadium notwithstanding, they also possess the league's lowest team ERA at 5.31. They'll be tasked with stopping a lineup led by Osiris Johnson (.390/.462/.661). However, Long Beach's recent form, comparable starting pitching and lockdown bullpen (headlined by Pioneer League saves leader Zach Voelker's 3.35 ERA) give them the narrow advantage.

Final Prediction: 2-1 Long Beach

Mike Chouinard

Go Billings! 

*Missoula has to continue their always-a-bridesmaid playoff streak

*Modesto loses to LB per 2024 CA expansion rules (team that gets baseball returned to their city only goes halfway)

*LB wins but no one likes it

(Billings also deserves it as a legacy team before Ballers return to full strength next year and the CA division becomes chaos.)

Kaya Oakes

Anyone but Modesto. 

But seriously... anyone but Modesto. After both JT Snow and the assistant coach threw massive tantrums in Oakland, the rivalry is on. 

But more seriously, my very lightly informed take is that it will be Billings or Long Beach. We saw Long Beach play a lot in Oakland this season and they are all around a very good team. But how many rivalries can we handle at once? As long as the coaches keep acting like babies I think we should keep Modesto as a rival on the level of The Joker, and Long Beach can be a lesser rival. Long Beach can be The Penguin. 

We didn't see Billings in Oakland this year, but their record is pretty impressive, plus my mom is from Montana so I'd be okay with Billings or Missoula. Have you ever seen a mustang or a moose up close? I'd be afraid of both. Foxes with greaser haircuts and parrots, not so much. 

Nick Clementi is an Oakland native and lifelong Oakland baseball fan. He enjoys long walks on the beach and summer nights at Raimondi Park. He’s a Scrappy enthusiast who doesn't believe in sacrifice bunts. Sports content moderator by day, Ballers beat writer by night. Find him on Instagram and Twitter.

Chris Drue is an East Bay native who has loved baseball since visiting the Coliseum with his dad as a kid. His favorite combo at Raimondi Park is a Fieldwork Day Money and a veggie dog (in a helmet!). His favorite pitch is the eephus, with a Barry Zito 12-6 curveball (circa 2002) a very close second. Find him on Instagram.

Roberto Santiago is a third generation Berkeley boy currently raising the fourth generation. Roberto’s writing has appeared in Latina, Parents, and various online outlets. A lifelong baseball fan, Roberto worked briefly with the Boston Red Sox and once hit an RBI single off Spaceman Lee on a 2-2 changeup. It was his only at bat ever in a real baseball game. Find him on Instagram.

Dan Silvert was born in Berkeley, raised in Piedmont and has spent two decades living in Oakland.  He is a residential Realtor® and Ballers advertiser/sponsor who referees high school/college lacrosse and trains Brazilian jiu jitsu and plays disc golf in his free time.  He is grateful for the Ballers restoring his love of baseball.

Dawn Pieper is an Oakland resident, B’s superfan, and leading Ballunteer. She works with animal rescues including Full Circle Cats.

Michael Thompson is a Bay Area student entering his senior year of high school. He writes about MLB and other baseball leagues on his Substack, as well as for Dispatches. After high school, he plans to attend college and work in the sports industry.

Kaya Oakes is a senior lecturer in writing at UC Berkeley and the author of six books of nonfiction. Her writing has appeared in The Guardian, The Washington Post, The New Republic, and many other publications. She was born and raised in North Oakland and lives a few blocks from Bushrod Park, home field of Oakland baseball legends. Put on Mac Dre’s “Feeling Myself” if you want to see her dance like a fool.